Comparing different trend estimation approaches in country means and standard deviations in international large-scale assessment studies

Robitzsch, Alexander; Lüdtke, Oliver

doi:10.1186/s40536-023-00176-6

Large-scale Assessments in Education

An IERI – International Educational Research Institute Journal

Table 7 Trend estimates in country means and their linking errors for the PISA Trend from 2006 to 2009 in science

From: Comparing different trend estimation approaches in country means and standard deviations in international large-scale assessment studies

	Estimate						Linking error
cnt	I1	I2	I3	I4	D2	D4	I1	I2	I3	I4	D2	D4
AUS	− 6.0	− 5.2	− 3.1	− 4.0	− 3.9	− 4.0	7.9	7.4	5.3	7.7	7.6	7.7
AUT	− 20.3*	− 19.7*	− 20.2*	− 16.7*	− 17.4*	− 16.7*	5.3	5.7	5.5	6.6	3.7	6.6
BEL	− 10.6	− 8.7	− 14.1*	− 10.5	− 9.9	− 10.5	8.0	7.1	4.4	4.3	5.9	4.3
CAN	− 12.5*	− 11.9*	− 9.3	− 9.1	− 9.7	− 9.1	4.7	6.6	5.2	6.1	6.1	6.1
CHE	− 1.2	1.9	0.3	3.0	3.4	3.0	5.1	6.0	4.5	3.3	3.5	3.3
CHL	− 10.9	− 8.3	− 13.0	− 11.9	− 11.2	− 11.9	7.7	12.7	5.8	7.5	6.4	6.4
CZE	− 18.1	− 14.6	− 12.5	− 9.8	− 12.4	− 11.3	7.9	7.8	4.9	7.3	7.8	6.6
DEU	− 0.4	1.7	1.5	5.8	6.2	5.8	6.3	9.1	4.2	5.4	7.5	5.4
DNK	− 7.5	− 3.8	− 0.9	− 4.1	− 4.6	− 4.1	4.9	4.0	5.0	6.0	5.3	5.6
ES	− 11.3	− 8.7	− 10.9	− 10.2	− 10.4	− 9.9	6.2	7.2	6.7	5.8	8.9	6.5
EST	− 11.5*	− 7.8	− 12.7*	− 9.2	− 10.9	− 11.0	9.0	6.5	5.6	6.5	4.8	4.9
FIN	− 12.1*	− 15.3*	− 10.3	− 15.6*	− 16.9*	− 15.6*	5.9	6.6	5.5	5.7	8.3	5.7
FRA	− 7.5	− 11.0	− 6.3	− 8.8	− 2.9	− 5.7	4.4	8.1	6.0	6.2	10.8	5.7
GBR	− 7.1	− 9.6	− 3.7	− 5.4	− 5.3	− 5.4	9.7	8.8	5.7	5.9	6.4	5.9
GRC	− 15.4	− 17.8	− 16.3	− 17.2	− 11.7	− 12.3	5.8	10.3	4.6	9.6	9.5	7.4
HUN	− 8.6	− 4.1	− 4.0	− 2.9	− 5.5	− 7.0	8.2	2.1	7.1	8.9	5.6	5.7
IRL	− 7.7	− 7.2	− 9.3	− 5.9	− 7.1	− 5.9	10.6	6.4	4.1	7.5	6.4	7.5
ISL	− 2.4	0.2	− 3.2	− 1.4	− 2.9	− 1.5	5.7	11.5	4.9	10.6	9.5	10.5
ISR	− 12.2	− 13.9	− 8.7	− 8.2	− 7.6	− 7.2	4.9	5.7	7.3	8.8	4.0	5.2
ITA	3.2	3.0	4.6	4.3	4.0	4.5	10.8	8.6	5.6	4.2	4.9	4.4
JN	5.7	0.7	− 0.2	− 4.5	− 1.4	− 3.5	9.7	12.0	9.3	15.4	10.1	11.5
KOR	10.9	25.5*	7.6	13.8	19.3	5.1	7.5	17.9	7.0	22.0	42.4	24.2
LUX	− 11.4*	− 9.9	− 12.5*	− 11.7*	− 10.7	− 11.7*	5.1	4.8	4.3	6.7	3.5	6.7
MEX	− 15.0*	− 16.2*	− 15.1*	− 14.7*	− 12.7	− 13.2*	5.3	7.6	6.9	8.7	8.7	8.9
NLD	− 7.4	− 4.7	− 6.6	− 5.6	− 5.0	− 5.6	8.4	6.6	7.4	5.3	5.9	5.3
NOR	4.8	8.7	5.8	7.0	6.9	7.1	6.7	5.0	7.6	3.8	3.3	3.9
OL	2.1	2.5	− 1.2	− 2.2	− 0.6	− 2.2	4.7	5.9	5.7	7.8	7.9	7.8
RT	10.3	9.8	9.8	10.8	10.0	7.9	6.6	7.7	4.6	6.4	5.5	6.4
SWE	− 15.3*	− 17.2*	− 10.9	− 17.1*	− 13.2	− 13.4*	7.6	9.8	6.5	4.2	5.7	3.9
TUR	18.9*	19.3*	19.1*	19.5*	20.6*	19.6*	6.2	8.1	7.9	4.7	4.3	4.1

cnt country
^*statistically significant trend estimates (p < .05) with used standard error \({\mathrm{TE}}_{\mathrm{IPD}}\) Estimates in I2, I3, I4, D2 and D4 that significantly differ from I1 are printed in bold

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