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An IERI – International Educational Research Institute Journal

Table 4 Summary of log-predictive scores and Kullback–Leibler divergences for boys and girls in the fixed priors setting

From: Bayesian probabilistic forecasting with large-scale educational trend data: a case study using NAEP

 

LPS

KLD

UIP

RIC

BRIC

HQ

UIP

RIC

BRIC

HQ

Boys

 Uniform

0.391

0.391

0.391

0.392

0.098

0.097

0.098

0.098

 Binomial (m = 2)

0.391

0.396

0.391

0.397

0.098

0.098

0.098

0.098

 Binomial (m = 4)

0.387

0.391

0.387

0.387

0.097

0.097

0.097

0.097

 Beta-binomial

0.397

0.395

0.397

0.397

0.098

0.098

0.098

0.098

Girls

 Uniform

0.391

0.390

0.391

0.392

0.096

0.096

0.096

0.096

 Binomial (m = 2)

0.401

0.402

0.401

0.405

0.097

0.096

0.097

0.097

 Binomial (m = 4)

0.383

0.390

0.383

0.383

0.096

0.096

0.096

0.096

 Beta-binomial

0.393

0.390

0.393

0.395

0.096

0.096

0.096

0.096

  1. UIP: Unit information prior; RIC: Risk inflation criterion; BRIC: Benchmark risk inflation criterion; HQ: Hannan–Quinn criterion; Uniform: uniform model prior; Binomial (m = 2): Binomial model prior with model size = 2; Binomial (m = 4): Binomial model prior with model size = 4; Beta-binomial: Beta-binomial model prior