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Table 4 Summary of log-predictive scores and Kullback–Leibler divergences for boys and girls in the fixed priors setting

From: Bayesian probabilistic forecasting with large-scale educational trend data: a case study using NAEP

  LPS KLD
UIP RIC BRIC HQ UIP RIC BRIC HQ
Boys
 Uniform 0.391 0.391 0.391 0.392 0.098 0.097 0.098 0.098
 Binomial (m = 2) 0.391 0.396 0.391 0.397 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098
 Binomial (m = 4) 0.387 0.391 0.387 0.387 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097
 Beta-binomial 0.397 0.395 0.397 0.397 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098
Girls
 Uniform 0.391 0.390 0.391 0.392 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096
 Binomial (m = 2) 0.401 0.402 0.401 0.405 0.097 0.096 0.097 0.097
 Binomial (m = 4) 0.383 0.390 0.383 0.383 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096
 Beta-binomial 0.393 0.390 0.393 0.395 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096
  1. UIP: Unit information prior; RIC: Risk inflation criterion; BRIC: Benchmark risk inflation criterion; HQ: Hannan–Quinn criterion; Uniform: uniform model prior; Binomial (m = 2): Binomial model prior with model size = 2; Binomial (m = 4): Binomial model prior with model size = 4; Beta-binomial: Beta-binomial model prior