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An IERI – International Educational Research Institute Journal

Table 2 Bayesian model averaging results for boys and girls

From: Bayesian probabilistic forecasting with large-scale educational trend data: a case study using NAEP

 

PIP

Post Mean

Post SD

Cond. Pos. Sign

Boys

 ReadBoyDiff

1.00

0.05

0.01

1.00

 TOTREVdiff

0.21

0.05

0.13

1.00

 PTRatioDiff

0.19

− 0.01

0.03

0.00

 BoysEnrollDiff

0.16

0.01

0.02

1.00

 NSLPLunchDiff

0.12

0.00

0.00

0.87

 FTEdiff2

0.12

− 0.00

0.00

0.37

Girls

 ReadGirlDiff

0.98

0.06

0.02

1.00

 GirlsEnrollDiff

0.72

− 0.09

0.07

0.00

 PTRatioDiff

0.46

− 0.04

0.05

0.00

 TOTREVdiff

0.41

0.16

0.24

1.00

 NSLPLunchDiff

0.13

− 0.00

0.00

0.28

 FTEdiff2

0.13

0.00

0.00

0.95

  1. PIP: Posterior inclusion probability; Post Mean: expected a posteriori estimate; Cond.Pos.Sign: Probability that the sign of the estimate is positive conditional on inclusion in the model